The Surge of Countries Below Replacement Level
According to the UN World Population Prospects 2024, the global total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to 2.25 as of 2024, approaching the replacement level of 2.1. In the 1970s, fewer than 10 countries had TFR below 2.1; by 2024, over 110 countries have fallen below replacement. This represents the most rapid demographic transition in human history - within just 50 years, the majority of the world has entered a "population decline trajectory."
South Korea recorded a TFR of 0.72 in 2023, continuing to set the world's lowest fertility rate. Taiwan (0.87), Singapore (0.97), and Japan (1.20) demonstrate that East Asia uniformly exhibits ultra-low fertility, while Sub-Saharan African nations like Niger (6.7) and Chad (6.1) maintain high rates. This divergence will fundamentally reshape global population composition over the next three decades.
Economic Factors - The Escalating Cost of Childrearing
The most direct driver of fertility decline is rising childrearing costs. In South Korea, the estimated cost of raising one child through university graduation reaches approximately 300 million won (roughly $230,000), which combined with soaring housing prices has severely dampened young people's desire to have children. In Japan, private educational expenditure as a share of total education spending substantially exceeds the OECD average, spreading the perception that "having children is an economic risk."
However, economic factors alone cannot explain the full picture. Nordic countries maintain generous childcare support systems yet their TFR remains at 1.5-1.7. Meanwhile, France (1.79) and Ireland (1.70), with lower economic indicators, sustain comparatively higher fertility rates. Economic support mitigates fertility decline but no developed country has restored rates to replacement level through policy intervention alone.
The Education and Gender Equality Paradox
A strong negative correlation exists between female educational attainment and fertility rates. UNESCO data shows that women with tertiary education have TFR averaging 1.5-2.0 lower than women with only primary education. Education raises the opportunity cost of childbearing, disseminates contraceptive knowledge, and strengthens career orientation. This relationship is observed consistently worldwide.
The "gender equality paradox" presents an intriguing pattern. Esping-Andersen and Billari (2015) proposed that fertility drops lowest at intermediate stages of gender equality, then recovers as equality advances further - a U-shaped relationship. In Nordic countries and France, where male participation in childcare has progressed and work-family balance receives institutional support, fertility rates have stabilized. Japan and South Korea can be interpreted as sitting at the bottom of this U-curve.
From Demographic Bonus to Demographic Burden
Fertility decline initially produces a "demographic bonus" (rising working-age population ratio) that accelerates economic growth. East Asia's high-growth era coincided with this demographic bonus. However, prolonged low fertility eventually leads to aging and a "demographic burden" (rising dependency ratio). Japan reached this inflection point in the 1990s and now confronts ballooning social security costs and labor shortages.
By 2050, South Korea's working-age population is projected to shrink by 35%, and China will lose over 200 million workers. Immigration offers limited compensation, making productivity gains through AI and robotics essential. Demographics constitute the most fundamental constraint on economies, and fertility rate rankings function as leading indicators forecasting economic power rankings three decades hence.
Individual Choice and Societal Sustainability
Fertility rates ultimately represent the aggregation of individual choices and cannot be coerced by policy. Yet individual choices are strongly conditioned by social institutions, economic environments, and cultural norms. "Freedom not to have children" and "wanting children but being unable to" are entirely different problems, and resolving the latter should be the policy focus.
When comparing your life metrics globally using MyRank, fertility data visualizes the intersection where individual life planning meets societal sustainability. Your country's fertility rate directly affects future pension systems, healthcare infrastructure, and economic growth rates. Individual rankings cannot be separated from social context. Knowing your position is also understanding the future of the society in which you live.